Ajax – Chelsea
Over 3 goals Asian handicap
Ajax has started this season`s Champions League journey perfectly. With two 3-0 wins, they are topping their group after the two first matches. With the wins against Lille and Valencia, we can expect Ajax to be full of confidence in this match which is important when you are playing such an attacking football as they are. Their confidence will be very helpful in their mission to score goals, entertain and win at home against Chelsea.
Chelsea did not have a good start in Champions League losing their first match 1-0 at home against Valencia. Fortunately for them, they won 2-1 away against Lille and are on 2nd place in their group behind Ajax after the two first rounds. Ajax and Chelsea are both expected to make it to the final rounds this season so the two best teams in the group are meeting each other here and we can look forward to an entertaining match since both teams are much better in attack than defence.
In Eredivisie and Champions League together Ajax has played 12 matches so far this season. On average this has resulted in 3.1 scored goals and 0.6 conceded goals for Ajax. The reason why Ajax has conceded such a few amounts of goals could be that their league is not the most competitive. Therefore, Chelsea should have a fair chance of scoring here since they will maybe be the best team Ajax has met so far this season.
In the Premier League, Chelsea`s matches have probably been the most entertaining ones this season. Chelsea is both scoring and conceding a lot of goals. Despite Chelsea being 4th on the table so far there are crazily enough only three teams that have conceded more goals than them. Defensive problems rarely get fixed overnight and Ajax will be ready to utilize these defensive problems. When Frank Lampard can`t seem to fix their defensive problems it is great to have good attackers that always provide goals. Scoring 1.9 goals on average per match in Champions League and Premier League together no one can say they are not scoring enough goals.
Considering Ajax`s crazy score ratio and the fact that Chelsea score and concede around 2 goals on the average per match we believe this can be a match with plenty of goals. Ajax with an offensively 4-2-3-1 formation with all their best players available against Chelsea who suffers a few injuries on key players like Kante, Rudiger and Barkley must, in my opinion, be a match with many goals. Kante the world’s best ball-winning midfielder is out and that will definitely not decrease the chances for goals this match as it will make it easier for Ajax to have the ball in central areas and create chances from there. Chelsea will most definitely play a 4-3-3 formation as they have done all season and without Kante and Rudiger we will see a Chelsea that is better in attack but worse in defence than usual since they will probably start with Jorginho, Kovacic and Mount as central midfielders. We think this will create a scenario where both teams will create good chances on counter attacks but also from build-up.
As already mentioned Ajax has all their players available and will have the strongest lineup possible here. Considering they scored three against both Valencia and Lille we believe they will score a few here too. Even though Ajax kept a clean sheet in both of those matches we do not think they will be able to do so here considering they were really lucky not conceding against Valencia since they missed a penalty and wasted some enormous goal opportunities that match. Chelsea will be a better team than all the teams they have met so far and therefore we are pretty sure Ajax will concede despite having a decent defensive record so far this season. We could bet on both teams to score for around 1.50 which I also find value in. But considering we expect many goals we believe over 3 is a better tip for even odds (1.94).