Marlins – Royals (9/7)

Today’s Bet: Miami Marlins @ (1.86/-115)

Key Factors:

  • Avoiding recency bias
  • Caleb Smith fits the matchup
  • Danny Duffy and concern against right-handed hitters


This is the game log for Caleb Smith the last ten games. We are intentionally posting this here to show two things: his recent struggles, but also reason to believe bounce-back performance is coming. Note the games he struggled most were against the Braves, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Reds. Smith is a left-handed pitcher. Note the OPS (on-base plus slugging) numbers these opponents have against left-handed pitching:

Braves: 0.796
Diamondbacks: 0.856
Nationals: 0.819
Reds: 0.747

Royals: 0.689

As you can see, many of his opponents rank significantly higher than the Royals in terms of hitting against left-handed. Additionally, he will have an advantage against the Royals current lineup:

Caleb Smith

Royals lineup.PNG

The charts above show Caleb Smith vs.the Roayls current lineup. Highlighted in yellow are 5 Roayls hitters who have a strikeout rate above 20%. This is noted as Smith has a strikeout rate of 28.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. The only problem with Smith is the power he gives up to right-handed hitters with an ISO of 0.262. However, we do not see this quite as big of an issue in this matchup with Marlins Park being a very difficult stadium to hit home runs in and the fact the Royals projected lineup consists of 4 players with 75 plate appearances or less. Overall, this is a potential bounce-back spot for Smith and a favorable matchup.

Now let’s take a look at Danny Duffy vs. the Marlins lineup:


Danny Duffy.PNG


Unlike Smith, the Marlins lineup appears to be in a better situation. As you can see in Danny Duffy’s recent game logs, inconsistency is what he is all about. He sometimes goes out and pitches well but he allows an average of 1.40 baserunners per inning and as you can see, lacks strikeout potential against right-handed batters (only an 18.5% strikeout rate). If Duffy gets into trouble, he is less likely to get out of it compared to Smith. A strikeout rate under 20% is a red flag and another key statistic is the hard contact rate%. Against righties, Duffy allows a hard contact rate of 42.3%. Unfortunately for him, he will have to face an entire Marlins lineup of right-handed batters.

Overall in this matchup, we see value on the Miami Marlins. Although both of these teams have terrible records, we see enough of an edge in terms of pitching to make this worthy enough. We went with a first 5 innings bet last night with the Twins (check out our free bets on Telegram: However we’ll go with the full game here. Over the last two weeks, the Royals bullpen has had a 6.23 ERA compared to only a 3.91 ERA for Miami. Possibly another edge, but nonetheless we like the Marlins to bounce back after losing last night to pick up the win here.




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