Reds – Cardinals (8/17)

We’re back with a breakdown of yet another key National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals. Today features two familiar pitchers if you have followed our betting tips in the past: Anthony DeSclafani and Miles Mikolas. If you haven’t already, subscribe to our free bets on Telegram: t.me/sportsbettingmasters

Today’s Bet: St. Louis Cardinals @ (1.76/-130)

Key Factors:

  • Cardinals’ playoff push
  • DeSclafani’s recent struggles
  • Batter vs. Pitcher

Last night the Cardinals continued their recent success as they won 13-4 and six out of their last seven games now. Here is where the Cardinals stand currently:

NL Central.JPG

As you can see the Cardinals are in a very close playoff race, not only to win their division but the NL Wildcard as well. With today being August 17th, less than two months remain. This time of year, it is often hard to difficult to find value on teams like St. Louis in key games such as this one. We will do that this evening, but let’s take a look at the matchup as well:

Descalfani.JPG

The stats above show Anthony DeScalfani’s last three games.  He now has an 8.16 ERA this month. He has had a rollercoaster season and has yet to find much consistency. Below has been his ERA by month this season:

April: 4.26
May: 5.59
June: 3.08
July: 2.78
August: 8.16

Given his recent struggles, there is a concern that if he has a bad outing here, the Reds will have to turn to their bullpen who has been the 6th worst in MLB in the month of August in terms of ERA, 6.34.

Batter-vs-Pitcher-Reds-Cards.png

In terms of each starting pitcher, Miles Mikolas is a pretty average pitcher like DeScalfani, however, much like DeScalfani he is very good against right-handed batters and weaker against left-handed batters. Both lineups will consist of 3-4 left-handed batters most likely and the numbers in the chart above are highlighted for a few reasons. In terms of Cardinals hitters… here are DeScalfani’s numbers against lefties and righties:

Left:
Opponent batting average: 0.299
wOBA: 0.397

Right:
Opponent batting average: 0.225
wOBA: 0.279

Mikolas and his numbers:

Left:
Opponent batting average: 0.300
wOBA: 0.373

Right:
Opponent batting average: 0.253
wOBA: 0.290

As you can see, the numbers between these two pitchers are nearly identical, so where do we see an edge? The edge comes in terms of injuries from our point of view. Last night Joey Votto, and Jesse Winker missed the game with back spasms and Eugenio Suarez suffered a hand injury. Tonight ALL are OUT. This is significant because if you take a look at the lifetime averages off Mikolas these three players have produced much of the offensive production. Mikolas, as mentioned, is very good against right-handed hitters. He will now only face 3 left-handed batters and this is an added bonus.

In terms of Cardinals hitters, they will have 4 lefties in the lineup. Dexter Fowler, Tommy Edman, Kolten Wong, and Matt Carpenter stand out as the lefties expected to crack the lineup. Looking at previous matchups, Kolton Wong is the only one that is concerning who has only reached base one time, but is red hot currently on a four-game hit streak and went 4 for 5 last night. Given the major problems DeScalfani has had, Fowler, Edman, and Carpenter appear to be in good spots. Also Paul Goldschmidt, and Marcell Ozuna have both seen success in the past off DeScalfani, only striking out a combined two times in 38 at-bats. This is important to note as DeScalfani has a 26.2% strikeout rate against right-handed batters. Although it is a small sample size, this hitting situation for St. Louis is potentially better than it may seem. With these matchups in mind, we will go with the St. Louis Cardinals tonight to pick up another important win.

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