MLB Saturday (Mets – Nationals)

We’re back with another full MLB breakdown and this game is a big one. The red hot New York Mets will take on the Washington Nationals in what is a very important game in the playoff race. Only 1.5 games separate these two clubs, there is a lot at stake for both of these teams. The Mets have come out of nowhere winning 14 out of their last 15 and look to add another win to their unbelievable run. And like the Mets, we’ve been on fire as well recently, winning 18/22 MLB bets over the last two weeks. If you haven’t already,  check us out on Twitter: @sportsbettingm8 (Follow us) and subscribe to our free bets on Telegram:

Today’s bet: New York Mets ML @ (1.83/-120)

Key Factors

  • Mets killing left-handed pitching
  • Patrick Corbin’s struggles on the road
  • Nationals depleted bullpen
  • Mets have Edwin Diaz and Seth Lugo available tonight/new faces on the team

The New York Mets are taking on the Washington Nationals. As mentioned, the wildcard race in the Nationa League has been a close one and should be a good one gong into September. Noah Syndergaard “Thor” is taking on Patrick Corbin. Thor has an 8-5 record, 3.96 ERA, 140 strikeouts, and a 1.21 WHIP. On the other side of the mound, left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin has a 9-5 record, 3.43 ERA, 164 strikeouts, and a 1.17 WHIP. Syndergaard, on the other hand, has been a different pitcher since the trade deadline passed. He has proven the Mets that the team made the right decision by keeping him. In his last two starts since the deadline, he has 14.1 innings under his belt, only gave up 8 hits, and gave up 1 earned run. Patrick Corbin has struggled on the road and got rocked in his last start against his former ballclub. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings. Corbin has a 5.32 ERA on the road and the Mets hit left-handed pitching very well.


Mets Splits

Mets-Nats Batters.PNG

 The three charts above show an advantage for the Mets tonight in terms of matchups. Starting with the first chart, Corbin as mentioned before struggles away from his home ballpark; the differences are quite large. Another interesting stat is there is a noticeable difference in the day vs. night games. Tonight, Corbin will have both working against him and faces a Mets team that could take advantage. Corbin struggles more against right-handed batters as well, tonight the Mets will have up to 6 in the lineup. The second chart shows the hitting splits for the Mets. Pretty easy to break down, they’re a much different team against left-handed pitchers like Corbin. Finally, the last chart shows the career statistics for both Noah Syndergaard and Patrick Corbin. Looking at the numbers highlighted in yellow, the Mets hitters have performed better historically off of Corbin than the Nationals hitters have off of Syndergaard. Although the batting average is lower for the Mets, the wOBA, slugging percentage, OPS, and ISO are slightly higher. I would rather trust these statistics. Factor in the Mets and their success hitting left-handed pitchers and there appears to be a slight edge here.

Overall, we like Syndergaard more than Corbin, but we also like the relief pitchers for the Mets slightly more. There were a lot of takeaways from last nights game. The Nationals looked like they were running away with the game late. However, the veterans on the Mets got the last laugh. Before Sean Doolittle gave up the three-run Home Run to Todd Frazier, Frazier was 2-4 with a home run against Doolittle. Nationals manager Dave Martinez also made Fernando Rodney warm-up for a little bit and did not even use him. It was surprising that the Nats didn’t change the pitcher after Doolittle gave up two straight hits. Also, historically, the Mets have owned the Nationals bullpen. Before the Nationals gave up 4 runs in the bottom of the ninth, the bullpen had a 9 ERA against the Mets. The Mets bullpen isn’t stellar either but they have two new players that could be available, and a rested bullpen. I have a feeling that if needed, Seth Lugo will close and not Edwin Diaz. The Nationals might have Daniel Hudson available after pitching one inning, but Sean Doolittle should not be available. Roenis Elias is on the DL which does not help them at all with a depleted bullpen. With all of this in mind, we will take the Mets tonight at a fair price.

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