MLB Saturday (Rockies – Giants)

We’re back with another MLB bet today and there is some value we’re liking today. Let’s try to build on our recent 12-3 run in MLB and continue our consistency. If you haven’t already,  check us out on Twitter: @sportsbettingm8 (Follow us) and subscribe to our free bets on Telegram: t.me/sportsbettingmasters 

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants

Giants ML @ (2.10/+110)

Key Factors

  • Jon Gray’s track record against the Giants
  • Will the Rockies get out of this bad stretch?
  • Giants have their ace on the mound

The San Francisco Giants are taking on the Colorado Rockies. The Giants did not sell during the MLB trade deadline. It was a bit surprising, but it is understandable because it is their manager Bruce Bochy’s last year. Madison Bumgardner is taking the mound for them against Jon Gray. Mad Bum has a 6-7 record with a 3.74 ERA, 140 strikeouts,  and a 1.15 WHIP in his 23 starts. On the other hand, Jon Gray has a 10-7 record with a 3.88 ERA, 134 strikeouts, and 1.36 WHIP in 22 starts while appearing in 23. Gray is one of the Rockies most dependable starters but has given up quite a few runs when he runs into trouble. The Rockies are currently 29th in ERA, last in opposing batting average, 28th in opposing slugging percentage. They have the most hits allowed in the majors. Gray as a strikeout rate of 24% slightly above the league average, while the Giants are around the league average in the number of strikeouts as a team. Overall, it is not an area Gray will be able to take advantage most likely.

In terms of the previous meetings, if you look at their most recent series on July 15th through the 17th, the Giants outscored the Rockies 40-15. In Gray’s most recent start against the Giants, he went 5.1 innings while giving up 11 hits and 6 runs. He also walked 3 and if you look at his 3 starts his command has been an issue giving up 11 walks in that span. Instead of being sellers, the Giants added a bat in Scooter Gennett.  Gennett might be struggling this year but he owns the Rockies at Coors Field. He is 22-53 with 3 home runs in 16 games, which is second among active players. The Giants have a great track record against Gray and I see that continuing tonight. To add onto that Mad Bum has won all of his 3 starts against the Rockies.

Comparing these two pitchers against their opponent’s tonight, take a look at the differences:SF-COL.JPG

There is a very large sample size with both of these pitchers. As noted Bumgarner has had success vs. Colorado in the past, and Gray as not. What really stands out is Jon Gray though, .998 OPS and .428 wOBA allowed to Giants hitters in his career, you do not see those numbers every day. There is always a strong belief that batter vs. pitcher statistics matter. Both pitchers have faced over 100 batters on both teams and there is a major difference between the two.

In terms of the matchup, team situations, etc. we are liking the value on San Francisco tonight. With the Giants back in the playoff mix after success in recent weeks, they did did not trade Madison Bumgarner and appear to be pushing strong to make a surprise playoff appearance. The same cannot be said about Colorado. Prior to the start of this series last night they only won 3 out of their previous 10. Colorado has played their best baseball at home, but have produced -1.8 units as a home team this year while the Giants continue to show value as a road team netting +13.4 units. Overall, we like the trends as well as other things that we noted. We’ll go with the Giants as a road underdog this evening.

 

 

 

 

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