MLB Saturday (July 27th)

Detriot Tigers vs Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners @ (1.64/-155)

Key Factors

  • Marco Gonzales can he duplicate his last performance
  • Tigers continuous struggles 1-9 in last 10
  • Tyler Alexander stats are better than they seem

The Detriot Tigers are taking on the Seattle Mariners. Tyler Alexander of the Detriot Tigers (0-0, 2.25 ERA, 5 strikeouts, and has a WHIP of 0.75). On the other side of the mound, Marco Gonzales of the Seattle Mariners (11-8, 4.37 ERA, 91 strikeouts, and has a WHIP of 1.33). Alexander has had a decent start to his career but he has only faced teams that are under.500. Also, his two starts have been 18 days apart which may be the reason why his numbers may look better than it seems. His numbers in the minors have not been great at all. If you look into his numbers more closely, he has not pitched well since his days in Double-A. Seattle by no means is contending for a playoff spot, but for a team that has been through a lot of changes every month, they had some decent stretches at times. Take a look below and take note of his minor league numbers. Although he has been good in two starts thus far at the major league level, he appears to be due for regression.

Alexander fangraphs.PNG

Daniel Vogelbach is having the best season of his career. He might not hit for average, but he can put the ball over the fence without any hesitation. I can see him make an impact in this game. The Tigers will also be trading some players in the coming days. I do not expect them to overwork any of their key trade pieces. Until the Tigers show a sign of life, continue to fade them in many situations.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros

Houston Astros -1.5 @ (1.83/-120)

Key Factors

  • Gerrit Cole
  • Cardinals lineup lacks power
  • Ponce de Leon strikeout rate vs. Astros hitters

Here we have an interesting interleague matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros. We see Gerrit Cole pitching for the Astros going up against Daniel Ponce de Leon for the Cardinals. In terms of this matchup, I am really liking what I am seeing out of Gerrit Cole. Since the start of June he has gone at least 6 innings in all of his starts and has only given up two or more runs once, and that came on the road in Texas. Now he faces a St. Louis team that has been playing well lately but still lacks the power in their lineup. In Gerrit Cole’s 22 starts, the Astros have just lost 7 times and in those games combined Cole has given up 10 home runs. I believe he will keep the ball in the yard today, and continue his solid run on games.

de leon.PNG

However looking at this chart above, we will take the Astros to win by two runs or more due to the matchup with Daniel Ponce de Leon. Although he has a 2.82 ERA and 28.9% strikeout rate, he is due for regression. His xFIP is much higher than his actual ERA and today he faces an Astros team that strikes out the second least amount of times in all of Major League Baseball. He throws 70% fastballs and that is a concern against an Astros team that is patient at the plate and will make him work. Although the Cardinals won in his last start against the Pirates, he looked vulnerable issuing four walks in only three innings and had to get out of many jams. I am not expecting similar luck today and will take Houston to win by two or more here.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers ML @ (1.76/-130)

Key Factors

  • Lester on the road
  • Batter vs. Pitcher history
  • Chase Anderson reverse splits

In what is always an interesting NL Central matchup the Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs. Jon Lester will pitch for the Cubs after missing his last start due to illness. Coming into this matchup, he has been having some issues recently, allowing 20 hits and 8 runs over his last 12 2/3 innings. Now he comes into Milwaukee to face a great offense, an area he has struggled most this year. In his road starts he has a 5.09 ERA this year compared to 2.95 at home. This has been a spot to avoid Lester all year and his history with the Brewers has not been good either.

Batter vs pitcher

Looking at the first part of this chart, Lester has allowed a batting average of .312 against Brewers hitters and a .340 wOBA. 125 at-bats is a decent sample size as well. Add in the fact he’s coming off of a missed start and is on the road, and Lester is someone I am looking to bet against today. On the other side, look at Chase Anderson’s numbers, he has had much better success against the Cubs holding them to a .214 average.

Anderson

His numbers against left-handed hitters back these numbers up. Anderson is significantly better against lefties and the Cubs lineup today will consist of up to five in the lineup most likely. Combining history, splits, and situation, the Brewers appear to be in a good situation today to pick up a key divisional win tonight.

 

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