MLB Friday (6/28)

Cincinnati Reds – Chicago Cubs

Cubs ML @ (1.80/-125)

Key Factors

Cole Hamels has an edge
It’s not a secret the Reds have been one of the most inconsistent teams offensively this year and tonight could be another spot to bet against them. They ranked 7th worst in runs per game this year and have now lost four straight games. Not a good time to face Cubs pitcher Cole Hamels either. In his last five starts, Hamels has gone at least 7 innings in each game and has allowed the following amount of runs: 0, 0, 0, 1, and 3. Hamels in on fire right now and take a look at the Reds bad history against him below. A wOBA under .300 and the team only has three home runs in 91 at-bats and only two extra-base hits as well (Both by Joey Votto). He is 11-1 against the Reds in his career with a 1.71 ERA. Combine that with him being on fire right now.

Hamels

Sony Gray and the Reds recent struggles:

With Hamels on fire of late, Sonny Gray is trying to avoid going back to how bad he was last season with the Yankees. However, in recent games, there is some concern. After allowing only 3 runs in 17 innings, Gray has now given up 10 runs in his last 15 innings, and an ERA of 6.00 and 1.53 WHIP in his last three games. Whether Gray can rebound remains to be seen but it will have to be at home tonight in some hot weather in Cincinnati. Given Gray’s struggles, and the Reds being untrustable to score runs on any given night, this all depends on the Cubs being able to take advantage of Gray’s recent struggles. I think they are able to take advantage of him tonight and like the value re are getting with these odds.

San Diego Padres – St. Louis Cardinals

Padres ML @ (1.83/-120)

Key Factors

Recent form
Both of these teams are heading in opposite directions both with recent records as well as production. For the Padres, they are a team sitting right at .500 (40-40) but have shown some positive signs recently offensively. They have scored 8 or more runs in 4 out of last 6 games and return home where pitcher Eric Lauer has thrived. While having a 4.32 ERA on the season, Lauer has a 2.70 ERA at home and has given up 2 earned runs or less in seven out of his last ten starts. He is a player who historically has better numbers against righties than lefties despite being a left-handed pitcher. This should work in his favor against a right-handed heavy Cardinals hitting lineup. Now speaking of the Cardinals, they have not looked great as of late only scoring over 4 runs three times in their last ten games. Trending downwards they head to a pitcher-friendly ballpark in San Diego and will have Michael Wacha get the start.

Michael Wacha vs. Right-Handed Hitting
Speaking of Michael Wacha, he draws a difficult matchup tonight. While he has looked better in recent weeks, I am not buying the recent success. Looking at this chart, note how poor Wacha has been this year against right-handed batters (on the bottom). These trends also go with his past history. Wacha is a reverse splits pitcher who cannot seem to get righties out.

Wacha.JPG

This is not a good situation against the Padres even in a pitching friendly environment. The Padres that features 7 right-handed batters. Simply we’re riding the hot bats and the pitching splits advantage and siding with San Diego.

 

Pirates vs Brewers

Over 10.5 (1.95/-105)

Key Factors 

  • Chacin struggles against lefties this season
  • Pirates have a few lefties in the lineup
  • Archer may give up a couple of Home Runs
  • Both pitchers give up a lot of walks
  • The Pirates have been outscored by 61 runs this season and has a 20-22 record away from PNC Park this season. However, they have been heating up as of late.
  • Pirates have put up a lot of runs in recent games.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are heading over to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers at Miller Park. This matchup features Chris Archer vs  Jhoulys Chacin. Archer is 3-6, has a 5.56 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 69.2 innings pitched. He has a WHIP of 1.48. On the other hand, Chacin is 3-8, has a 5.88 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. They both are struggling with very similar numbers. Josh Bell leads the team with 22 HRs. Archer strikes out 9.56 per nine innings pitched with 4.65 walks, and 2.33 bombs allowed per nine. The Brewers may strikeout a lot, but they do have bats that can put balls in play and over the wall in a hurry.

The Brewers have lacked offense from the bottom of the lineup excluding the pitcher, However, things may be a little different tomorrow. Travis Shaw who has been batting .164 has been optioned to triple-A. Also, Hernan Perez has been DFA’d (Designated for Assignment). I see a power bat like Eric Thames getting a start tomorrow. He is batting .262 with 10 HRs. He may not be an improvement defensively, however, runs may come in bunches tomorrow. One last stat to consider is the Brewers best relief pitcher, Josh Hader pitched 2 innings with 29 pitches. I can’t see him coming out of bullpen unless things really get out of hand early. I really like the Over for this game.

 

 

 

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