MLB Tuesday the 25th

Cubs – Braves

Braves ML @ (1.86/-115)

Key Factors

Cubs vs. Left-Handed Pitching 

The Cubs have struggled to hit lefties like Max Fried. Their batting average is nearly 20% less against lefties and they’re 0-4 in their last four games against left-handed starters.  And the Cubs have been cold at the plate recently. Over their past ten games before last night, they’ve only scored 36 runs, an average of just 3.6 per game. Fried also appears to match up well with the Cubs, he only gave up one hit in 6 innings the last time he faced them. It’s also worth noting the Braves are 8-2 in the last 10 games Fried has started.

Weather

Wind Wrigley.PNG

Weather is another key factor as the wind will be blowing out to the outfield. This is important due to the groundball rates each pitcher has. Max Fried for the Braves has maintained a groundball rate between 50-60% in his career and the rookie for the Cubs Adbert Alzolay has had a groundball rate at 37% while in the minor leagues. This is a potentially a bad situation against a powerful Braves team when he is only making his second career start. We spoke highly of him on Thursday, but we’re taking the Braves here as they appear to have a slight edge.

Phillies – Mets

Phillies ML @ (1.71/-140)

Key Factors

Righty vs. Righties 

It’s no secret the Mets have been performing well offensively in recent weeks, but today they’ll go up against Jake Arrieta, a right-handed pitcher, who is very tough on right-handed batters but struggles historically against lefties. Tonight Arrieta will face a Mets team that cannot seem to figure out right-handed pitching this year:

Left-handed pitching is on top vs. right-handed pitching on bottom:

Mets righties.PNG

Walker Lockett and Mets Bullpen

If you read our previous breakdown on Lockett: Article from his first start you will see how bad Lockett truly is. Here is the chart from before:

Lockett

He’s struggled at nearly every level and is now in another tough matchup on the road. His last start against the Cubs, he looked alright until he gave up six in one inning. However, yet again, his advanced numbers aren’t worth my money to bet on. He’s a minor league quality pitcher and is in a bad spot tonight. The worst part about it is that he has no help with the Mets bullpen behind him. The Phillies offense woke up last night after losing seven straight. There might be some recency bias in these odds, so we’ll side with the Phillies at a fair price.

Rangers vs Tigers

Rangers ML @ (1.71/-140)

Key Factors

Jordan Zimmerman’s struggles on the mound

  • Tigers are 1-5 in Zimmermann’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 1-8 in Zimmermann’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Tigers are 1-8 in Zimmermann’s last 9 starts vs. American League West.
  • Tigers are 0-5 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts.

The Texas Rangers from the Lonestar State are traveling to Motown to take on the Detriot Tigers. Jesse Chavez of the Rangers is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA, 41 strikeouts, with a WHIP of 1.28 in 45.1 innings pitched. On the other hand, Jordan Zimmermann is 0-4 with a 6.03 ERA, 25 strikeouts, with a WHIP of 1.37 in 34 innings. The Rangers have definitely been a surprise this season. They are 42-36. The Tigers are 26-47 which isn’t a surprise at all. The Tigers only average 3.5 runs a game and only hit .220 as a team. Both are ranked 29th in the league in their respected categories. They are also 29th in the league in home runs as their two best power hitters Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos have 11 home runs combined. They have gotten unexpected power numbers from Jacoby Jones and Brandon Dixon. However, those 4 combined only have 29 home runs. Christian Yelich from the Milwaukee Brewers has the same amount of home runs.

The Rangers might not have Joey Gallo, Hunter Pence, and Asdrubal Cabrera tonight but they do have some very good bats in the lineup who can put up runs. Zimmermann has only been credited with just one win in his last 14 starts dating back to last season. Jesse Chavez did not disappoint in his last start. He pitched 5 innings, gave up 4 hits, and one ER against a much better Cleveland Indians team. Also, Chavez may not be a starter anymore, but he was in the past. I can see him pitch around 3-5 innings if everything goes as planned. I believe the Rangers get the job done.

 

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