MLB Tuesday Total Bet

Indians – Reds

In a matchup featuring two solid pitchers, Trevor Bauer, and Luis Castillo face off in what looks to be a pitching showdown. Castillo comes into the game having gone 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA in 13 starts on the year. He faces a Cleveland team that has struggled to score runs ranking only 24th in the league and only ranking 28th in hitting at .227. Needless to say, as one of the up and coming star pitchers of the league Luis Castillo is in a great spot today against the Indians. He has looked great lately, giving up one run or less 4 out of his last five starts. Where many young pitchers tend to struggle, Castillo has also been great on the road this season, posting an ERA of 2.78 and a perfect record of 3-0. I believe Castillo is trustable and is someone with talent that continues to go undervalued.

Trevor Bauer, on the other side, will pitch the Indians who has gone 4-6 with a 3.93 ERA on the year. However, a cause for concern is how he has gone 0-5 with a 5.52 ERA over his last seven starts. As one of the best pitchers in the league from last year, will Bauer be able to bounce back in this game? That is the question, but I like the value and his chances in this situation. The Reds have only put up 2.14 runs per game this week, and have been struggling to show consistency on offense. As mentioned before, Bauer is also a talented pitcher, many projected him to be one of the top pitchers in baseball this season. The one player Bauer has to worry about is Joey Votto who profiles very well against Bauer as he is a player who throws a lot of curveballs. Bauer’s other primary pitch, his changeup, he throws often to left-handed batters. Bauer has struggled most against left-handed batters this season, but it’s worth noting that the RTeds top 4 left-handed batters (Votto,  Dietrich, Winker, and Barnhart) have all struggled against change-ups since 2016.

 

Our Pick: Under 8.5 @ (1.86/-115)

I expect a low-scoring game, and Trevor Bauer to get back on track, while seeing Luis Castillo continue his impressive stretch of games. It’s also worth noting that after Bauer is finished for the day, the Cleveland bullpen will take over who is number one in Major League Baseball. Neither team really stands out to me offensively, and believe we’ll get a strong showing out of at least one, if not both of these pitchers.

 

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