It’s round 3 of the RBC Canadian Open, the PGA Tour’s only stop in Canada. On a golf course where scoring can be favorable, here are three bets for today’s action. Please note the two types of bets: 3-way where a draw is a loss, and draw no bet:
Webb Simpson – Adam Hadwin
Simpson @ (1.80/-125) (3-way)
In a matchup featuring two accurate players off the tee, we’re going with Simpson, who I believe has much more upside between the two. Through two rounds Simpson has made 10 birdies through 36 holes without a single bogey on his card. As one of the elite ball-strikers on tour, this golf course fits his game as he often lacks distance off the tee but ranks 20th in strokes gained tee to green. Through the first two rounds, he has been putting very well, if this can continue into the third round, watch out! I expect Webb Simpson’s solid play to continue.
Hadwin is in his home country, fits the course pretty well, but just lacks the same upside Simpson has for me. So far this season, Hadwin only has two top 20 finishes and has lacked the consistency we have seen in the past. While he had a solid second round shooting a 66, it’s worth noting he needed two eagles to get there. In terms of strokes gained tee to green, Hadwin ranks outside of the top 100. I believe there is enough value on Simpson in this spot to warrant betting him over Hadwin. Statistically, Simpson has more potential to shoot a low score.
Sunjae Im – Ben Silverman
Im @ (1.72/-138) (Draw No Bet)
Breaking down this matchup is much more straightforward. This is a simple a fade of Ben Silverman. Like Hadwin, Silverman is a Canadian playing at home, but his statistics from round 2 were a big outlier. In round 1 he shot a 71 (below average) but in round 2 he shot the second lowest round of the day shooting a 61. However, to get his 61, he truly played almost a perfect round of golf. Despite ranking only 105th in total putting, he gained over 4 strokes on the putting green and did not miss a single fairway. He also had two eagles despite having one the entire season before this week.
Sunjae Im on the other side is a much better player overall. He is a solid player from tee to green and ranks in the top 50 in most statistical categories. Through two rounds he has shot a 64 and 68 and has not had many outliers occur. If anything, his 68 yesterday was hurt by one bad shot on the 15th hole where he had to take a penalty. Overall, these odds are slightly lower, but considering a draw is a push, I like backing the more complete player who I can trust more
Brian Harman – Danny Willett
Harman @ (2.15/+115) (3-way)
This bet is a solid value play in my opinion. In terms of statistics very little separates these players. Both are pretty mediocre in every category out there and each player has traded lower rounds (Willett beat Harman in round 1, Harmon beat Willett in round 2). However, I actually favor Harmon slightly more than Willett for the following reasons. Although Harmon has not been terrific this year he has been heating up his last two events gaining +6.0 strokes on his approach to the green (a key stat heading into this week). While historically, Harman has been a great putter, he has slipped a little bit his last few events. However, it is worth noting that Harman is much better on Poa greens and so far this week, the improvement has been there gaining 0.9 strokes in round one and 2.1 strokes in round 2. In what should be a close matchup, I am going with the player who gained some momentum in round 2 and who’s game appears to be turning around. I’ll side with the value here.