It’s Thursday and that means it is time for another round of Premier League Darts. Today there are four matches, and we believe there is always value to be had. So often, darts is about studying form and motivation. It is one of the most mental games you can play so all of these tips will involve the state of mind each of our players is in. Each of these games is played best out of 14-legs with a draw coming into play at 7-7. With these bets today, all are under 2.0 odds, so the goal is to hit 3 out of 4 to be profitable:
Rob Cross vs Michael Smith
Rob Cross to win (3-way bet) @ 1.90
The opening match for Thursday is meaningless for one player but means everything to another. Looking at the standings Michael Smith is out of the race for the top 4 in the table. Rob Cross on the other hand, has had a solid season where he finds himself only one point behind Michael van Gerwen for the top spot. Last week, Cross only got a draw but expect him to win today. He is in great form and Michael Smith is one of the worst players under pressure, currently among the worst in the Premier League at checkouts. That is not going to be good with the precision of Cross. He is a world-class player and it should be enough to get him a much-needed win.
Peter Wright vs Mensur Suljovic
Mensur Suljovic to win (3-way bet) @ 1.83
Another big match for one player and not very important another. Mensur Suljovic finds himself sitting just outside the top 4 and getting a win here is critical. He is in luck as he gets Peter Wright as his opponent, who is in terrible form right now. Mensur leads the head to head series 11 to 6 over Wright also. He is often inconsistent but can also be one of the better players in the league when he is playing well. I thought about taking -2.5 at 2.62 due to Wright’s free fall, but for safety, I expect Suljovic to win. Wright is changing his darts and trying something new every week to get his game back on track. Untrustable right now.
Daryl Gurney vs Michael van Gerwen
Daryl Gurney +3.5 legs @ 1.80
A darts match featuring MVG is always a tough one to bet. MVG is by far the best player in the world and he is always a heavy favorite. Now he gets Daryl Gurney who has actually beat him the last two matches they have faced, overall though, MVG still leads the series 14 to 3 with 1 draw. I have a hard time seeing Gurney win, but I think the +3.5 leg handicap is worth a chance. The key to this entire game is Gurney being able to get the doubles at the end of games to finish, that has been his weakness all year. With Daryl Gurney, there are usually two scenarios: he is an absolute trainwreck or he plays a pretty close match. We could get burned here, but I think +3.5 legs is good value. Perhaps wait to see who throws first in the match.
James Wade vs Gerwyn Price
Over 12.5 Legs @ 1.53
This final match is also the toughest to predict. Both players are playing very well and both are in the 3rd and 4th spots in the table. Such an important game for both players, it could go either way. For this reason, I am going with over 12.5 legs. While I understand these may be lower odds than we want, I find it difficult to imagine one of these players winning by a large margin considering what is at stake and the form both players are in. Price is playing well, going unbeaten in five, and Wade has been consistent this year. Also, Wade has the advantage in the head to head series 5 wins in 8 matches with 1 draw. I think an 8-5 game is probably the worst case scenario here.