ATP Sunday Finals (4/28)

ATP Barcelona

Dominic Thiem – Daniil Medvedev

This has the potential to be a great match. Two of the rising stars in tennis face off in what should be an entertaining battle throughout. Dominic Thiem on Saturday defeated an 11-time champion of this event, Rafael Nadal and only faced three break points (all in the last game). He has rolled through 4 strong clay court players in Schwartzman, Munar, Pella, and now Nadal. All three wins in straight sets, his confidence is sky high right now. He has now won 8 sets in a row and appears to be building on a potential breakthrough season.

Daniil Medvedev has also had a nice run in this tournament, and taking out his latest victim in Kei Nishikori. In this match, Nishikori was somewhat erratic making 22 unforced errors, which ultimately cost him the match. With the match going three sets Medvedev’s fitness and baseline ability got him the win. Like much of his previous matches, Medvedev has taken advantages of his opponents mistakes, and has made them pay for it. Much like Thiem, he is very high on confidence right now. He faces Thiem for the second time after losing to him 2-1 indoors in his home country back in September.

Prediction: Thiem 2-0 @ 1.83
While I respect Medvedev and his impressive run thus far, Thiem is simply playing on a different level. Medvedev will now face his toughest test yet. Thiem is serving very well, and it is  hard to bet against a player who has only been broken twice this whole tournament and has just taken out an 11-time champ.

ATP Budapest

Matteo Berrettini – Filip Krajinović

This match features two players who are in unfamiliar territory. This is only Berrettini’s 2nd final appearance and the first for Krajinović. Matteo Berrettini defeated Laslo Djere 2-0 on Saturday. In the victory, Berrettini served very well winning 78 percent of his total service points. In fact, Berrettini lost just four first serve points and ended up winning four of the final five games to close the match. Berrettini has only lost one set this tournament and hasn’t been broken in two of his last three matches.

Krajinović has put together some his best weeks of his entire career. He is on fire right now winning 10 out of his last 11 matches taking out quality opponents along the way. So far this tournament, Krajinovic has won 84 percent of his total service points and in his last match did not face a single break point vs. Pierre Hugues Herbert. Playing the best tennis of his life, he looks for his first career title.

Prediciton: Over 21.5 games @ 1.65
While there is value on Berrettini, and a player like Krajinović who is hard to bet against in his current form, the significance of his first career title for Krajinović  and the second for Berrettini is important here. Both players have been playing very well and this is truly a tough game to predict. I think Berrettini has the experience to keep it close and so does Krajinović in his current form. I think over 21.5 games is worth a look. 3 sets would be an automatic win and there is may be hope for a tie-break. In this match I would lean towards Krajinović, but this is not the easiest game to predict. 

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