Today, there are three games in the NBA. From each game, we have one player prop we like that we feel like there is an opportunity in our favor. There will be more articles like this throughout the NBA playoffs as we look to find little edges to work to our advantage. Some of these props may have different odds/totals depending on your bookie, so use this information wisely. Here are the picks for tonight:
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics
Kyrie Irving Under 7.5 Assists (1.8/-125)
This selection comes down to history and team situation. In terms of history, Kyrie Irving is averaging 6.9 assists per game, very close to our over/under. However, what makes this bet seem very logical is in the five previous meetings, including game one of this series, Irving has failed to record 8 assists in any of these meetings. In terms of team situation, the injury to Marcus Smart has forced Irving to play off the ball more and is no longer the primary ball-handler at times. Combine this with the very low full game over/under, and 7 or fewer assists seems like a safe pick.
Detriot Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks
Eric Bledsoe Over 15.5 Points (1.83/-120)
Just to start, I absolutely hate this game as a whole. The Pistons are 15 point underdogs and quite frankly have no business being competitive in this series. This game could obviously be over very quickly, but I believe there is some value in Eric Bledsoe scoring at least 16 points in this one. In game one, Bledsoe only took 9 shots and still managed to score 15 points in 25 minutes. Keep in mind, the Bucks won by over 30 points which limited Bledsoe’s minutes. If the Pistons can be more competitive, Bledsoe should play a few more minutes and the over 15.5 should hit. In the four regular-season meetings with Detriot, Bledsoe has averaged 20.5 points per game in 30 minutes on average; strong stats that make me lean over 15.5 points.
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Assists (1.71/-140)
Similar to the Bledsoe selection, this simply comes down to averages. In game one of the series, Mitchell had ZERO assists, a brutal performance. However, that is not going to scare us away as history is on our side. In four meetings with the Rockets in the regular season, Mitchell has had 4 assists in 3 out of 4 meetings. He also had a very encouraging quote after his brutal game one performance: “I can’t have no assists and five turnovers, if you have no assists and five turnovers, you have to look yourself in the mirror and figure out how to adjust.” And Mitchell has adjusted all year after bad games, here is a list of the number assists he has following games when he only has 0 or 1 assist:
5, 7, 0, 3, 5, 6, 3, 1, 6
5/9 times he has gone on to have 4 or more assists. We believe there is an edge in our favor with the statistics.